The Fed chief’s first international appearance could move rate expectations just as traders bet on a September hike.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh heads to Sintra, Portugal on Wednesday for his first public appearance outside the U.S. since taking office in May. He’ll share the stage with three heavyweights: ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.

Key details

The panel kicks off at 9 a.m. EDT at the ECB’s annual economic forum. It’s Warsh’s second real test since his June 17 debut, when he held rates steady, talked tough on inflation, and pledged to hit the Fed’s 2% target. He also stripped out the Fed’s usual forward guidance, a break from tradition that’s still rattling analysts. The appearance also comes days after the Supreme Court ruled that Fed Governor Lisa Cook keeps her job, despite Trump’s attempt to remove her.

Market reaction

Warsh’s hawkish tone in June pushed investors to raise the odds of a Fed rate hike as early as September. That puts the U.S. on a different path than its peers: the ECB recently raised rates, while the Bank of England and Bank of Canada have held back, citing weak growth at home.

Why it matters

Traders will be listening for clues on where Warsh stands on Fed independence and whether his no-guidance approach sticks. His peers, including Lagarde, are also pulling back on rate signals, but Warsh has gone further, even avoiding comment on where he sees the economy heading.

What to watch

Any hint on rate direction, inflation risk, or Fed independence during the Q&A could move markets fast.

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Source: Reuters