Starving birds flocking into Lima’s fish markets are the clearest signal yet that a major El Niño is already rattling Peru’s export machine.
Hundreds of pelicans have abandoned their breeding grounds and are showing up at ports and coastal markets, desperate for food. Marine biologists say it’s a direct result of warming Pacific waters pushing fish stocks further out to sea, leaving the birds with nowhere to feed.
What’s happening
Sea temperatures off Peru are running 2 to 5 degrees Celsius above normal, according to monitoring agency ENFEN. That’s driven commercial fish species into deeper water, and industrial fishing output has dropped 31% in the first five months of the year. Meanwhile, agriculture grew a modest 0.4%, still weighed down by the heat.
Peru’s fishing industry now worries it will miss its $5 billion export target for the year, up from $4.6 billion in 2025. Agricultural exporters, coming off a record $15.1 billion in 2025, expect to lose close to $1 billion in revenue they’d already banked on. One industry official called it possibly the worst El Niño in 50 years.
Peru’s Congress has approved a $2.8 billion budget boost for flood defenses and infrastructure, though exporters say it won’t be enough.
Why traders should care
Peru is the world’s third-largest copper producer and a top global fishmeal and produce supplier. Any hit to fisheries or agriculture ripples into commodity supply chains, currency stability, and inflation expectations across Latin America.
Keep an eye on ENFEN’s temperature readings and Peru’s Q3 export data – both will show whether this El Niño lives up to its ominous reputation.
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Source: Reuters
