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What Happens to Oil If Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Stay Shut?

The Oil Map Is Getting Dangerous Again

At a Glance

  • Trump warns Iran to strike a deal or watch its economy collapse and leadership fall
  • Iran’s military threatens “sustained retaliation” against US bases if attacked again
  • Houthi missiles hit near Riyadh’s main airport, deepening the Gulf crisis
  • Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb both effectively blockaded, squeezing global oil flow

A war of words just got louder, and oil markets are watching every syllable.

Iran and the United States traded fresh threats on Sunday, reviving fears that a months-long standoff could tip into something worse.

What Happened

President Trump told a Fox News reporter that Iran’s leaders should make a deal, or watch their economy “rot” and their leadership disappear. Still, he left the door open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at this week’s UN General Assembly.

Hours earlier, Iran’s military warned that any new strike would trigger sustained retaliation against US bases and regional allies, and claimed it had intelligence that an attack was already being planned.

Adding fuel to the fire, Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched missile and drone strikes near Riyadh’s airport, sending smoke over the Saudi capital. The US State Department issued a security alert warning Americans of possible airspace closures.

Market Reaction

With the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait both effectively blockaded, Gulf oil exports are nearly frozen – a setup that keeps pressure building under global energy prices.

Why It Matters for Traders

Every threat, statement, and strike in this conflict moves oil, gold, and risk sentiment in real time. Volatility like this doesn’t wait for confirmation – it moves on headlines.

All eyes turn to New York this week, where Pezeshkian’s UN appearance could either crack the door open for talks or slam it shut.

Stay ahead of every market-moving headline with QuoMarkets

Source: Reuters 

 

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