New research suggests the encryption protecting trillions in crypto assets may fall to quantum computers years ahead of schedule, and the industry is scrambling to respond.
Google research pushed forward its timeline for quantum computers capable of breaking modern cryptography, now estimating 2029 instead of a decade out. Citigroup has reached similar conclusions, warning that quantum advances combined with AI breakthroughs are shrinking the window crypto has to prepare.
Key details
Most blockchains still run on decades-old elliptic-curve cryptography. Bitcoin faces the biggest exposure: its 17-year transaction history has left a huge number of public keys visible, and an unpublished June 2026 paper estimates roughly 35% of its circulating supply could be at risk. Some earlier research put that figure as high as 50%.
Market reaction
Jefferies’ global equity strategy head, Christopher Wood, dropped a 10% bitcoin allocation from his model portfolio in January, citing the long-term threat. No major blockchain among the top 20 has adopted post-quantum signatures yet, though Ethereum is targeting 2029 and Algorand published a roadmap last month.
Why it matters
A single successful attack that drains and dumps a large token holding could crash its price and shake confidence across the market, according to Moody’s. But experts also caution against rushing: post-quantum signatures are bulkier and could strain networks with limited block sizes, like Bitcoin.
What to watch next
Which blockchains commit to upgrade timelines first, and whether bitcoin’s decentralized community can agree on a fix before the threat becomes urgent.
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Source: Reuters
