While the rest of Wall Street rushed to praise SpaceX’s stock, one analyst just broke ranks and told investors to pump the brakes.

Tuesday marked the end of SpaceX’s post-IPO quiet period, and the research floodgates opened. Of the 19 firms that initiated coverage, 18 slapped a “buy” rating on the stock. Only one didn’t.

Key Details

MoffettNathanson analyst Julie Zhu set a 12-month price target of $131 – the lowest of the bunch, and the only one sitting below SpaceX’s Tuesday close of $149.47. Her rating: neutral. 

Zhu’s report pushes back on SpaceX’s $30 trillion market opportunity, calling parts of it “absurd,” and questions whether Starlink’s phone business and Musk’s space-based computing plans are realistic anytime soon. 

Still, she credits SpaceX’s rocket dominance, years ahead of Blue Origin, as the engine driving everything else.

Market Reaction

SPCX shares slid 6.83% following the wave of new coverage, even with the overwhelming buy-side optimism. Meanwhile, bulls stayed loud: Goldman Sachs ($205 target), JPMorgan ($225), and Morgan Stanley ($300) all pointed to SpaceX’s grip on launch, satellite, and AI infrastructure markets as reasons to stay bullish.

Why It Matters

Zhu’s biggest worry isn’t the tech – it’s regulators. She compared SpaceX’s expansion to the antitrust scrutiny Big Tech has faced for using dominance in one market to muscle into others. “It’s tough to say with conviction today,” she said, “and anyone who’s trying to tell you that is definitely kidding themselves.”

What to Watch

With SpaceX’s valuation resting on markets that don’t fully exist yet, traders should watch how regulators respond as the company keeps expanding beyond rockets.

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Source: Yahoo Finance