A shortened trading week brings a critical jobs report, falling oil prices, and fresh doubts over AI spending all at once.
Stocks closed last week on a soft note, and this week brings more pressure. Thursday’s jobs report is the main event, landing alongside falling oil prices and renewed AI spending jitters.
Key Details
Friday’s close was quiet: the S&P 500 and Dow each slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. June’s jobs report lands Thursday, not Friday, since markets close Friday for July 4th. Job openings, ADP payrolls, and layoff data round out the week, alongside consumer sentiment and ISM readings. Bloomberg’s survey puts expected June job growth at 123,000. Earnings are light, but Nike reports on Tuesday.
Brent crude dropped below $70 a barrel Friday, and U.S. gas prices are following, with the national average now at $3.90 a gallon per AAA. Stocks are stuck in limbo as strong demand for AI infrastructure competes with concerns over OpenAI’s reported IPO delay.
Why It Matters
Hiring fears persist, partly from real data and partly from companies blaming AI for hiring pauses. Still, the Fed sees the labor market as healthy. Thursday’s report will show if the economy is running hot, which could push the Fed to hold rates instead of cutting.
Micron’s blowout earnings confirmed AI infrastructure demand is real and locked in for years, but OpenAI’s IPO delay revived doubts. A new Exponential View report, cited by Bloomberg, suggests AI revenue may be catching up to hyperscaler spending, though usage data stays scarce while most AI firms remain private.
Falling oil usually eases inflation worries, but Apollo’s Torsten Sløk warned it could backfire: markets may read cheap oil as proof inflation is cooling and spend more, overheating the economy. He flagged the reopened Strait of Hormuz as part of that story, which could push the Fed toward raising rates instead.
What to Watch
Watch Thursday’s jobs numbers first, with oil prices and AI demand data close behind. A hot labor report paired with cheap oil could force the Fed’s hand sooner than markets expect.
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Source: Yahoo Finance
