Fresh strikes on Lebanon and explosions heard inside Iran push crude to multi-week highs, reviving fears of a prolonged Hormuz crisis.
Israel struck Beirut on Sunday. By Monday morning, explosions were being reported across Iran – Tehran, Tabriz, and Isfahan. Oil markets responded immediately.
What happened
Brent crude jumped $3.20, or 3.39%, to $96.24 a barrel. U.S. crude followed, rising $2.87, or 3.17%, to $93.41, wiping out Friday’s losses in a single session. Oil has now climbed more than 50% since March.
Iran fired missiles at Israeli targets in retaliation for the Beirut strikes. Despite the exchange, President Trump insisted a broader peace deal is still on the table, reportedly urging Israeli PM Netanyahu to hold back from further attacks. “I call the shots. I call all the shots,” Trump told the Financial Times.
The Hormuz factor
Iran has tied a Lebanon ceasefire to any peace deal with Washington, and that condition is still unmet. Tehran continues blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of global oil supply. The U.S. has responded with its own blockade of Iranian ports.
OPEC+ announced its fourth output increase in four months on Sunday. Analysts say it changes little; most members can’t hit their targets precisely because of the Hormuz closure, and Russia’s production has been worn down by infrastructure strikes.
Why traders should care
Every flare-up along the Lebanon-Iran-Israel axis now moves oil directly. Until Hormuz reopens, supply remains structurally constrained.
Watch: Whether Netanyahu responds, and whether the Lebanon ceasefire holds through the week.
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