Exxon and Chevron are about to post their biggest profits in years, right as the White House demands cheaper gasoline before the midterms.

Second-quarter earnings season is shaping up to be a big one for U.S. oil giants, and that’s a problem for President Trump. He’s been pushing his usual allies in Big Oil to lower pump prices, and instead they’re about to report a windfall.

Key details

Exxon Mobil is expected to post around $15.9 billion in adjusted net income, more than triple what it earned last quarter. Chevron is tracking toward roughly $9.9 billion, also triple its prior quarter. It’s the strongest showing for the industry since 2022. Gasoline crack spreads, the gap between crude and refined fuel prices, jumped to about $25 a barrel, up $16 quarter over quarter, while diesel spreads rose to around $45.

Market reaction

Crude has drifted back toward pre-war levels, but gasoline at the pump is still running about 22% higher than before the Iran conflict began. The national average sits near $3.85 a gallon, far above the $2.50 Trump says he wants to see.

Why it matters

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned refiners that the administration could act if prices don’t drop. The Justice Department has been asked to look into possible price gouging. For traders, the gap between crude and retail fuel is the story to watch – it points to tight refining capacity and inventories, not just crude pricing.

What to watch next

Earnings reports land in the coming weeks, alongside any signs of White House action on pricing. Analysts expect share buybacks to pick up in the second half of the year regardless.

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Source: Reuters